Tenaris SA (TS) is a leader in the manufacture and distribution of tubular merchandise utilized in oil and gas drilling and transportation (know as Oil Nation Tubular Goods, or OCTG).
With the Covid-19 crisis and the oil selling price war, drilling exercise has been crushed in North America, and so has Tenaris’ inventory selling price. It may well be some time right before drilling resumes.
Tenaris captivated my attention for the reason that it has extra hard cash on its harmony sheet than credit card debt, which is unusual for an oil & gas marketplace offer organization. The inventory has also fallen beneath fifteen-12 months lows. The harmony sheet is in superb form, with Altman Z-Score of three.8 and a Gurufocus Money Strength score of 8 of ten.
On April 24, it was investing beneath its tangible e-book worth, which it has never ever right before accomplished because its IPO in the U.S.
Offered its capital intensive mother nature, Ibelieve it is an ideal inventory to be evaluated employing the median selling price-e-book ratio technique. As you can see in the chart beneath, the inventory is investing at much less than a third of its normalized selling price-e-book-justified selling price, indicating a huge margin of safety. Earlier record implies that the inventory selling price at some point could catch up to its median selling price-e-book ratio, nevertheless it could be a extensive wait around.
Equally, the median selling price-gross sales ratio (see chart beneath) is a handy indicator. The selling price-gross sales ratio has plunged to 1, indicating that traders are anticipating a big slowdown.
In phrases of dividends, Tenaris has paid out regular dividends for about fifteen years now. Nonetheless, supplied the financial instances, I believe it is extremely very likely to count on that the dividend will be slash.
The oil selling price war and financial shutdowns have briefly turned oil into a valueless commodity in the United States these very last several weeks. Brent crude, the worldwide benchmark, has shed 70 per cent of its worth in the very last 12 months, which brings us to the new narrative: we could be in for a extensive era of lower prices, all the extra so because electric powered cars and trucks and renewable electrical power are at last taking off.
Nonetheless, in my feeling, the expectation that oil prices will never ever recuperate is very likely incorrect. In my practical experience, the only issue that operates with oil and oil-relevant stocks is currently being a contrarian. Although there are no ensures of the upcoming, record has demonstrated that in this sector contrarians gain in the most often.
Tenaris, like all oil merchandise and solutions stocks, is deeply cyclical. The time to get cyclical stocks is when the economic system is down so that you can sell when business is superior. These are not get and maintain stocks. We do not know how extensive the slump will very last, but I believe Tenaris’s solid harmony sheet and worldwide footprint put the odds in its favor.
Disclosure: The author does not have a situation but is looking at a extensive situation.
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